Economic Outlook – October 2018

October 17, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Boston Federal Reserve’s President said he backs the U.S. central bank’s strategy of hiking Fed Funds rates gradually to head off a problem later on, excess inflation. In a recent speech in Boston, Eric Rosengren said that he expects the nation’s low unemployment rate to fall even further, creating the “risk of rising inflation or increasing financial stability […]

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Economic Outlook – September 2018

September 13, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Economic data continue to surprise to the upside. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August while the overall economy grew for the 112th consecutive month. The August survey reported business conditions surged to a 14-year high with the index rising to 61.3% from 58.1% in July. […]

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Economic Outlook – August 2018

August 17, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5% in June to 109.8 (2016 = 100), following no change in May, and a 0.4% increase in April. This increased reading suggests continuing solid growth for the U.S. economy for at least the next six months. Growth among the leading indicators was widespread, […]

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Economic Outlook – July 2018

July 10, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The latest estimate for U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter is 2.0%. While this represents a decline from the 2.9% growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2017, it is the highest Q1 growth rate since 2015. Preliminary readings on consumer spending, business equipment investments, and industrial production, along with the stimulative effect of […]

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Economic Outlook – June 2018

June 12, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Outside the United States, there has been an economic slowdown this year that economists had not predicted in their forecasts for 2018. This slowdown in business activity in the Eurozone, for example, could have many explanations. Labor strikes in Germany and France, the threat of more restrictive trade policy and the strengthening U.S. dollar exposing weaknesses […]

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Economic Outlook – May 2018

May 11, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced real GDP growth of 2.3% in the first quarter of 2018. The rate is in line with GDP growth in 2017 but behind Q4 2017 (2.9%) and President Trump’s goal of 3.0%. There are a number of reasons to be optimistic for the growth rate in the second quarter, including […]

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Economic Outlook – April 2018

April 13, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The U.S. economy grew at a faster pace in the fourth quarter (Q4) than previously reported. The Commerce Department stated that the third revision for Q4 real GDP came in at an annual rate of 2.9%, up from 2.5% in the previous estimate. Upward adjustments to personal consumption expenditures and private inventory investment were the primary drivers. […]

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Economic Outlook – March 2018

March 12, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Jerome Powell was sworn in as the 16th chairman of the Federal Reserve on Monday, February 5. He was greeted with a 1,100 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial average on his first day; the market’s reaction to news of greater than expected wage inflation data. It isn’t clear yet how Chairman Powell will run the Federal […]

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Economic Outlook – February 2018

February 9, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

U.S. GDP growth in Q4 fell shy of expectations, coming in at +2.6% (vs. expectations of +3%). Inventories and trade were larger drags than anticipated. The pace of global economic growth remains robust, however, and global forecasts have been moving higher. The Atlanta Fed’s initial forecast for Q1 2018 GDP growth is now at 5.4%. Expectations […]

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Economic Outlook – January 2018

January 10, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The U.S. economy has maintained steady growth and the outlook remains positive. Third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 3.2%, its fastest pace in more than two years and the first time since 2014 that the economy experienced growth of 3% or more for two consecutive quarters. Estimates for 2018 call for GDP growth […]

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