Economic Outlook – July 2019

July 11, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The U.S. economy grew 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the second estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was ahead of expectations and the best start to a year since the first quarter of 2015. We expect growth for all of 2019 to be between 2.0-3.0%. The U.S. labor […]

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Economic Outlook – June 2019

June 25, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The lack of a resolution to trade tensions with China has unsettled the global markets. The longer this trade war continues, the more it will weigh on economic growth. Recent market volatility reflects this uncertainty and is likely to continue until an agreement is reached. Consensus estimates are that already imposed tariffs have lowered GDP […]

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Economic Outlook – May 2019

May 22, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The U.S. labor market continued to show strength in April. The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, employers are hiring at a faster pace and the economy added 263,000 jobs in April. The 3.6% unemployment rate is the lowest since December 1969. The tight labor market has contributed to strong wage growth, with hourly […]

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Economic Outlook – April 2019

April 23, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter (Q4) than previously reported. The Commerce Department stated that the third revision for Q4 real gross domestic product (GDP) came in at an annual rate of 2.2%, down from 2.6% in the previous estimate. Personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed investment rose less than […]

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Economic Outlook – March 2019

March 22, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a much lower than expected non-farm payroll employment gain of 20,000 in February, the fewest monthly additions since September 2017. The low monthly gain was below the consensus estimate of a gain of 180,000 and well below January’s gain of 304,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. Monthly […]

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Economic Outlook – February 2019

February 19, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell indicated in early January that the central bank would consider altering its balance sheet policy based on economic conditions, a reversal of the position he had espoused in December. Speaking at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association, he confirmed that the Fed would be willing to adjust the […]

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Economic Outlook – January 2019

January 18, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 3.4%, above the economy’s growth potential of 2.0%. This expansion was driven by a strong consumer, which accounts for two thirds of U.S. GDP. December saw a 0.1% downward revision from the original October estimate of 3.5%. Federal Reserve officials’ GDP estimates for the coming year are […]

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Economic Outlook – December 2018

December 12, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The U.S. economy has maintained steady growth and the outlook suggests continued growth. Third quarter 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 3.5%, its fastest pace in more than two years, and the first time since 2014 that the economy experienced growth of 3% or more for two consecutive quarters. The U.S. […]

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Economic Outlook – November 2018

November 14, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2018. Bolstered by a robust employment environment, consumer spending led the way as personal consumption expenditures rose by a better than expected 4.0%. Government spending was also an important contributor to growth in Q3, in particular defense outlays which […]

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Economic Outlook – October 2018

October 17, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Boston Federal Reserve’s President said he backs the U.S. central bank’s strategy of hiking Fed Funds rates gradually to head off a problem later on, excess inflation. In a recent speech in Boston, Eric Rosengren said that he expects the nation’s low unemployment rate to fall even further, creating the “risk of rising inflation or increasing financial stability […]

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