Economic Outlook – March 2020

March 12, 2020 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 The novel coronavirus – named COVID-19 – dominated the attention of both the media and markets as the month of February unfolded. What is understood to have originated in Wuhan, China in December 2019 had, by the end of February, spread to six continents. How far and wide the virus will spread is still […]

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Economic Outlook – February 2020

February 13, 2020 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 The first estimate of fourth quarter real GDP growth was 2.1%, with positive contributions from consumption, government spending, home building, and exports, partly offset by negative contributions from inventories and nonresidential fixed investment. Consumer spending was much lower than in the third quarter, +1.8% vs. +3.2% in Q3. For the full year 2019, the […]

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Economic Outlook – January 2020

January 17, 2020 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 According to the U.S. Commerce Department, third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 2.1%, above the economy’s growth potential of 2.0%. There was no revision to the estimate published in October. A tempered growth rate since the financial crisis is one of the driving forces behind the elongated bull market cycle. Corporate managers have […]

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Economic Outlook – December 2019

December 12, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 The U.S. economy has expanded at a moderate, steady rate this year and is headed into the holiday season on solid ground. Third quarter GDP growth was revised upward from 1.9% to a 2.1% annual rate, largely due to strong inventory investment. October durable-goods orders rose 0.6%, more than anticipated, and follow a 1.4% […]

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Economic Outlook – November 2019

November 15, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 U.S. Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2019. This followed increases of 3.1% and 2.0% in the first and second quarters of 2019, respectively. Important contributors to growth in Q3 were consumer spending and government outlays. Personal consumption expenditures grew by 2.9% while government […]

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Economic Outlook – October 2019

October 11, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter, updated figures confirm, and slow growth should persist through the end of the year. GDP grew at a 2% annual pace from April through June, unchanged from the previous estimate. Consumer outlays account for almost 70% of all U.S. economic activity in the U.S. and households have been […]

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Economic Outlook – September 2019

September 19, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Economic growth appears to be moderating as data from services and manufacturing diverge. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved 0.5 percent in July to 112.2 (2016 = 100), reversing the decline in June. Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, stock prices and the Leading Credit Index, drove the improvement. The manufacturing sector […]

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Economic Outlook – August 2019

August 22, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.3% in June to 111.5 (2016 = 100), following no change in May, and a 0.1 percent increase in April. This is the first decline since last December. This LEI reading suggests growth is likely to remain slow in the second half of the […]

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Economic Outlook – July 2019

July 11, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The U.S. economy grew 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the second estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was ahead of expectations and the best start to a year since the first quarter of 2015. We expect growth for all of 2019 to be between 2.0-3.0%. The U.S. labor […]

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Economic Outlook – June 2019

June 25, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The lack of a resolution to trade tensions with China has unsettled the global markets. The longer this trade war continues, the more it will weigh on economic growth. Recent market volatility reflects this uncertainty and is likely to continue until an agreement is reached. Consensus estimates are that already imposed tariffs have lowered GDP […]

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