Economic Outlook – March 2019

March 22, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a much lower than expected non-farm payroll employment gain of 20,000 in February, the fewest monthly additions since September 2017. The low monthly gain was below the consensus estimate of a gain of 180,000 and well below January’s gain of 304,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. Monthly […]

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Economic Outlook – February 2019

February 19, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell indicated in early January that the central bank would consider altering its balance sheet policy based on economic conditions, a reversal of the position he had espoused in December. Speaking at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association, he confirmed that the Fed would be willing to adjust the […]

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Economic Outlook – January 2019

January 18, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 3.4%, above the economy’s growth potential of 2.0%. This expansion was driven by a strong consumer, which accounts for two thirds of U.S. GDP. December saw a 0.1% downward revision from the original October estimate of 3.5%. Federal Reserve officials’ GDP estimates for the coming year are […]

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Economic Outlook – December 2018

December 12, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The U.S. economy has maintained steady growth and the outlook suggests continued growth. Third quarter 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 3.5%, its fastest pace in more than two years, and the first time since 2014 that the economy experienced growth of 3% or more for two consecutive quarters. The U.S. […]

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Economic Outlook – November 2018

November 14, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2018. Bolstered by a robust employment environment, consumer spending led the way as personal consumption expenditures rose by a better than expected 4.0%. Government spending was also an important contributor to growth in Q3, in particular defense outlays which […]

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Economic Outlook – October 2018

October 17, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Boston Federal Reserve’s President said he backs the U.S. central bank’s strategy of hiking Fed Funds rates gradually to head off a problem later on, excess inflation. In a recent speech in Boston, Eric Rosengren said that he expects the nation’s low unemployment rate to fall even further, creating the “risk of rising inflation or increasing financial stability […]

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Economic Outlook – September 2018

September 13, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Economic data continue to surprise to the upside. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August while the overall economy grew for the 112th consecutive month. The August survey reported business conditions surged to a 14-year high with the index rising to 61.3% from 58.1% in July. […]

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Economic Outlook – August 2018

August 17, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5% in June to 109.8 (2016 = 100), following no change in May, and a 0.4% increase in April. This increased reading suggests continuing solid growth for the U.S. economy for at least the next six months. Growth among the leading indicators was widespread, […]

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Economic Outlook – July 2018

July 10, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The latest estimate for U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter is 2.0%. While this represents a decline from the 2.9% growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2017, it is the highest Q1 growth rate since 2015. Preliminary readings on consumer spending, business equipment investments, and industrial production, along with the stimulative effect of […]

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Economic Outlook – June 2018

June 12, 2018 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Outside the United States, there has been an economic slowdown this year that economists had not predicted in their forecasts for 2018. This slowdown in business activity in the Eurozone, for example, could have many explanations. Labor strikes in Germany and France, the threat of more restrictive trade policy and the strengthening U.S. dollar exposing weaknesses […]

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