Economic Outlook – December 2019

December 12, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 The U.S. economy has expanded at a moderate, steady rate this year and is headed into the holiday season on solid ground. Third quarter GDP growth was revised upward from 1.9% to a 2.1% annual rate, largely due to strong inventory investment. October durable-goods orders rose 0.6%, more than anticipated, and follow a 1.4% […]

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Economic Outlook – November 2019

November 15, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 U.S. Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2019. This followed increases of 3.1% and 2.0% in the first and second quarters of 2019, respectively. Important contributors to growth in Q3 were consumer spending and government outlays. Personal consumption expenditures grew by 2.9% while government […]

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Economic Outlook – October 2019

October 11, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter, updated figures confirm, and slow growth should persist through the end of the year. GDP grew at a 2% annual pace from April through June, unchanged from the previous estimate. Consumer outlays account for almost 70% of all U.S. economic activity in the U.S. and households have been […]

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Economic Outlook – September 2019

September 19, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Economic growth appears to be moderating as data from services and manufacturing diverge. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved 0.5 percent in July to 112.2 (2016 = 100), reversing the decline in June. Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, stock prices and the Leading Credit Index, drove the improvement. The manufacturing sector […]

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Economic Outlook – August 2019

August 22, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.3% in June to 111.5 (2016 = 100), following no change in May, and a 0.1 percent increase in April. This is the first decline since last December. This LEI reading suggests growth is likely to remain slow in the second half of the […]

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Economic Outlook – July 2019

July 11, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The U.S. economy grew 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the second estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was ahead of expectations and the best start to a year since the first quarter of 2015. We expect growth for all of 2019 to be between 2.0-3.0%. The U.S. labor […]

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Economic Outlook – June 2019

June 25, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The lack of a resolution to trade tensions with China has unsettled the global markets. The longer this trade war continues, the more it will weigh on economic growth. Recent market volatility reflects this uncertainty and is likely to continue until an agreement is reached. Consensus estimates are that already imposed tariffs have lowered GDP […]

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Economic Outlook – May 2019

May 22, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The U.S. labor market continued to show strength in April. The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, employers are hiring at a faster pace and the economy added 263,000 jobs in April. The 3.6% unemployment rate is the lowest since December 1969. The tight labor market has contributed to strong wage growth, with hourly […]

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Economic Outlook – April 2019

April 23, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter (Q4) than previously reported. The Commerce Department stated that the third revision for Q4 real gross domestic product (GDP) came in at an annual rate of 2.2%, down from 2.6% in the previous estimate. Personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed investment rose less than […]

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Economic Outlook – March 2019

March 22, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a much lower than expected non-farm payroll employment gain of 20,000 in February, the fewest monthly additions since September 2017. The low monthly gain was below the consensus estimate of a gain of 180,000 and well below January’s gain of 304,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. Monthly […]

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