Economic Outlook – June 2020

June 12, 2020 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 The U.S. stock market continued its rally in May despite dismal economic data. One reason for the rally’s continuation is the Federal Reserve, which had previously reduced its target interest rate to zero and reintroduced its Quantitative Easing bond buying program, indicating it would do whatever it takes for as long as it takes. […]

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Economic Outlook – May 2020

May 19, 2020 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 The COVID-19 pandemic is taking its toll on GDP growth. First quarter GDP contracted at a 4.8% rate, the worst reading since 2008. We expect economic deceleration with second quarter GDP contracting at a 30% annualized rate. While some states have begun to reopen their economies, it is difficult to predict the rate at […]

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Economic Outlook – April 2020

April 22, 2020 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 The longest U.S. economic expansion, which started during July 2009, ended in the month of February as the global viral pandemic forced a nationwide shutdown of businesses and an end to the U.S. expansion. While the Commerce Department’s third revision for Q4 real GDP came in at an annual rate of 2.1% and the […]

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Economic Outlook – March 2020

March 12, 2020 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 The novel coronavirus – named COVID-19 – dominated the attention of both the media and markets as the month of February unfolded. What is understood to have originated in Wuhan, China in December 2019 had, by the end of February, spread to six continents. How far and wide the virus will spread is still […]

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Economic Outlook – February 2020

February 13, 2020 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 The first estimate of fourth quarter real GDP growth was 2.1%, with positive contributions from consumption, government spending, home building, and exports, partly offset by negative contributions from inventories and nonresidential fixed investment. Consumer spending was much lower than in the third quarter, +1.8% vs. +3.2% in Q3. For the full year 2019, the […]

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Economic Outlook – January 2020

January 17, 2020 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 According to the U.S. Commerce Department, third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 2.1%, above the economy’s growth potential of 2.0%. There was no revision to the estimate published in October. A tempered growth rate since the financial crisis is one of the driving forces behind the elongated bull market cycle. Corporate managers have […]

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Economic Outlook – December 2019

December 12, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 The U.S. economy has expanded at a moderate, steady rate this year and is headed into the holiday season on solid ground. Third quarter GDP growth was revised upward from 1.9% to a 2.1% annual rate, largely due to strong inventory investment. October durable-goods orders rose 0.6%, more than anticipated, and follow a 1.4% […]

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Economic Outlook – November 2019

November 15, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

 U.S. Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2019. This followed increases of 3.1% and 2.0% in the first and second quarters of 2019, respectively. Important contributors to growth in Q3 were consumer spending and government outlays. Personal consumption expenditures grew by 2.9% while government […]

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Economic Outlook – October 2019

October 11, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter, updated figures confirm, and slow growth should persist through the end of the year. GDP grew at a 2% annual pace from April through June, unchanged from the previous estimate. Consumer outlays account for almost 70% of all U.S. economic activity in the U.S. and households have been […]

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Economic Outlook – September 2019

September 19, 2019 Economic Outlook
Positive Economic Trend Graph

Economic growth appears to be moderating as data from services and manufacturing diverge. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved 0.5 percent in July to 112.2 (2016 = 100), reversing the decline in June. Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, stock prices and the Leading Credit Index, drove the improvement. The manufacturing sector […]

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